Yale University

Reassessment of HIV-1 Acute Phase Infectivity: Accounting for Heterogeneity and Study Design with Simulated Cohorts.

TitleReassessment of HIV-1 Acute Phase Infectivity: Accounting for Heterogeneity and Study Design with Simulated Cohorts.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2015
AuthorsBellan, Steve E., Jonathan Dushoff, Alison P. Galvani, and Lauren Ancel Meyers
JournalPLoS medicine
Volume12
Issue3
Paginatione1001801
Date Published2015 Mar
ISSN1549-1676
AbstractThe infectivity of the HIV-1 acute phase has been directly measured only once, from a retrospectively identified cohort of serodiscordant heterosexual couples in Rakai, Uganda. Analyses of this cohort underlie the widespread view that the acute phase is highly infectious, even more so than would be predicted from its elevated viral load, and that transmission occurring shortly after infection may therefore compromise interventions that rely on diagnosis and treatment, such as antiretroviral treatment as prevention (TasP). Here, we re-estimate the duration and relative infectivity of the acute phase, while accounting for several possible sources of bias in published estimates, including the retrospective cohort exclusion criteria and unmeasured heterogeneity in risk.
DOI10.1371/journal.pmed.1001801
Alternate JournalPLoS Med.

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